Locked In: My Best Against the Spread Picks for NFL Week 3

As we dive into Week 3 of the NFL season, I find myself reflecting on the rollercoaster ride that has been the start of the 2024 campaign. With a current record of 2-4 against the spread (ATS), I’m eager to turn things around with some strategic picks. Historically, teams that start the season 0-2 have found success in Week 3, boasting a 61% ATS record since 2014. With that in mind, I’ve identified three matchups that I believe present excellent betting opportunities this weekend.

Eagles vs. Saints Odds

ATS Pick #1: Saints -2.5 (vs. Eagles)

The New Orleans Saints have quickly established themselves as one of the most formidable teams in the league, and they’re now favored by 2.5 points at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. This line has seen significant movement, flipping from the Saints being underdogs to favorites, reflecting the confidence in their performance thus far.

In their first two games, the Saints have been nothing short of dominant, outscoring their opponents 91-29. With new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak at the helm, the Saints have averaged an astonishing 45.5 points per game. Quarterback Derek Carr has orchestrated a high-octane offense that has scored on every possession this season, a feat that’s almost unheard of.

Conversely, the Eagles are struggling. After a disappointing loss to the Falcons, they’ve now won just two of their last nine games. Jalen Hurts has had a tough time covering the spread, going 1-8 in his last nine games. With a vulnerable defense and an offense that’s still finding its rhythm, I’m confident that the Saints will continue their winning ways at home.

NFL Pick: Saints -2.5 (-120)

Ravens vs. Cowboys Odds

ATS Pick #2: Ravens -1 (vs. Cowboys)

The Baltimore Ravens find themselves in an unusual position, starting the season 0-2 for the first time since 2015. However, I believe this is the week they turn things around against the Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens have been competitive in both games, narrowly losing to the Chiefs and then blowing a lead against the Raiders.

Dallas has struggled defensively, particularly against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Ravens’ rushing attack should be able to exploit this weakness. On the flip side, the Cowboys’ ground game has been lackluster, relying heavily on the passing game, which could be problematic against a Ravens defense that has allowed just 2.7 yards per carry.

Lamar Jackson has a stellar record against NFC teams, boasting a 20-1 straight-up record. I expect him to lead the Ravens to their first victory of the season and cover the spread in the process.

NFL Pick: Ravens -1 (-110)

Jaguars vs. Bills Odds

ATS Pick #3: Jaguars +5 (vs. Bills)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are another 0-2 team that I’m optimistic about this week as they face the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Despite their record, the Jaguars have been competitive, losing both games by narrow margins. Their offense has struggled, but they’re set to face a Bills defense that has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in their last game against the Dolphins.

The Bills may have secured a big win, but they were outgained in that game, highlighting potential weaknesses in their defense. The Jaguars have had success against the Bills in recent matchups, including an outright win in London last season. With the spread set at +5, I believe the Jaguars will keep this game close, if not pull off the upset.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +5 (-110)

With my current ATS record sitting at 2-4, I’m hopeful that these picks will help me get back on track. Betting against the spread can be unpredictable, but with historical trends and current team performances in mind, I feel confident in these selections. Good luck to everyone placing bets this week!