Assessing Damian Lillard’s Fantasy Value for 2024-25
Damian Lillard, a veteran guard known for his explosive scoring ability, was once a top Fantasy basketball pick, especially during his tenure with the Portland Trail Blazers. However, his transition to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2023-24 season raised eyebrows as his scoring average plummeted from an impressive 32.2 points per game in 2022-23 to just 24.3 in 2023-24. This significant drop has left Fantasy owners pondering how to evaluate Lillard’s potential in the upcoming 2024-25 Fantasy basketball drafts.
Lillard’s struggles can be attributed to several factors, including the adjustment to a new team and the presence of superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo, who averaged over 30 points and 11 rebounds last season, commands a significant share of the offensive workload. This dynamic raises questions about Lillard’s role and whether he can regain his elite scoring status or if he will continue to be a secondary option in Milwaukee’s high-powered offense.
The Importance of Sleepers and Breakouts
In Fantasy basketball, identifying sleepers and breakouts is crucial for building a competitive roster. As owners prepare for the 2024-25 season, they will be looking for players who can outperform their average draft positions (ADP) and provide significant value. One player to watch is Derrick White of the Boston Celtics, who emerged as a top-30 Fantasy player in his eighth NBA season. However, there is a risk that his performance may lead to overvaluation, making him a potential bust for the upcoming season.
To navigate these complexities, Fantasy managers should consider utilizing resources like SportsLine, which offers updated rankings and cheat sheets based on extensive simulations. The model behind SportsLine simulates each NBA season 10,000 times, providing insights that can help owners make informed decisions about their rosters.
Learning from Past Predictions
SportsLine’s model has a track record of accurately predicting player performance. For instance, last season, it flagged Josh Giddey of the Oklahoma City Thunder as a bust, anticipating that he would not meet his sixth-round ADP. Giddey’s minutes were significantly reduced due to roster improvements, leading to declines in his scoring, rebounding, and assists. This foresight allowed Fantasy managers to avoid the pitfalls associated with Giddey’s performance.
Conversely, the model successfully identified DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in the 2021-22 season, where he averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game. Similarly, it predicted breakout seasons for Paolo Banchero and Victor Wembanyama, both of whom went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors. Those who heeded the model’s advice found themselves in a strong position for a deep postseason run.
Top Sleepers for 2024 Fantasy Basketball
As we look ahead to the 2024 Fantasy basketball season, one of the most intriguing sleepers identified by the model is Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies. Despite being a two-time All-Star, Morant has faced challenges due to suspensions and injuries, playing in only 17 of 102 possible games since March 2023. However, in the limited action he saw last season, he still managed to average 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game. With Morant fully recovered from shoulder surgery and expressing a renewed focus, he could be poised for a significant comeback, making him a top-three Fantasy point guard in the model’s rankings.
Breakout Candidates to Watch
Another player to keep an eye on is Zacharie Risacher, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, who is expected to make an immediate impact with the Atlanta Hawks. Known for his elite 3-and-D skill set, Risacher shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc while playing professionally in France last season. With the opportunity to play alongside Trae Young, one of the league’s premier playmakers, Risacher could quickly become a valuable asset in Fantasy leagues, particularly if he secures a starting role early in the season.
Busts to Avoid
On the flip side, Fantasy managers should be cautious of players who may not live up to their draft positions. Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz is highlighted as a potential bust after a disappointing 2023-24 season. Following a breakout year where he earned an All-Star selection and the Most Improved Player award, Markkanen’s performance regressed, and he dealt with multiple injuries that limited his effectiveness. Despite signing a five-year extension with Utah, the presence of other forwards on the roster raises concerns about his role and production moving forward.
Finding Proven Rankings
For those looking to refine their Fantasy basketball strategies, SportsLine offers comprehensive rankings and cheat sheets that are continuously updated based on player performance and injury news. The model’s insights can help Fantasy managers identify which players to target and which to avoid, ensuring a well-rounded lineup that can compete for a championship.
As the 2024-25 Fantasy basketball season approaches, the landscape is filled with opportunities and challenges. By leveraging data-driven insights and staying informed about player performance, Fantasy owners can position themselves for success in their upcoming drafts.
